The current population of Mexico is 132.27 million according to the International Monetary Fund, that is equivalent to around 19.7% of the total Latin American and the Caribbean population.
Mexico is also the “15th largest market for pharmaceuticals in the world and the second largest in Latin America after Brazil” as stated by the International Trade Administration.
With more than 1.4 million potential regular legal cannabis users, the Mexican cannabis market has been estimated to be worth as much as US $3 billion a year.
| Population 2024 (m) | 132.27 | |
| GDP 2024 (US$ t) | 2.02 | |
| Agricultural land (% of land area) 2021 | 49.96% | |
| Pharmaceutical expenditure 2023 (US$ b) | 10.83 | |
| Medical cannabis patients 2021 | 32,000 | |
| Potential cannabis users (est.) | 1.07% | |
| Source: IMF/World Bank/Statista/Prohibition Partners | ||
Mexico Cannabis Market Legalization
Medical Cannabis
Mexico began changing its cannabis policy in 2009 when it decriminalized the possession of up to five grams. On June 19th, 2017, Mexico amended the General Health Law to authorize cannabis for medical use, limited to “pharmacological derivatives of cannabis”. Yet, the amendment did not establish any regulations to create a functioning market which prevented the appearance of a domestic market despite the legalization. In 2019, the “Supreme Court mandated the Health Secretariat to regulate the 2017 law amendment” and create rules for medical cannabis according to MjBizDaily. On January 12, 2021, Mexico’s Ministry of Health published the Medical Cannabis Rules which regulated the medical use of cannabis and its pharmaceutical derivatives as well as related activities including research, medical production and manufacturing. They came into force on the next day – January 13th, 2021.
In April 2022, 26 medical cannabis growing licenses were given to indigenous individuals and communities by an Oaxaca non-profit organization called the Asociación Indígena Productora de Cannabis de Oaxaca (AIPCO). These licenses were issued by (COFEPRIS). There are now around 800 producers in Oaxaca.
The Mexico medical cannabis market had an estimated value of $4.8 million in 2022 and is predicted to reach around $117.7 million by 2030 based on estimates from Grand View Research.
Recreational Cannabis
On March 11th, 2021, Mexico’s lower chamber approved a cannabis legalization bill to allow adults, over 18 years, to smoke cannabis and carry up to 28 grams. Cannabis can be purchased in licensed stores and citizens, with a permit, are allowed to grow up to six plants while farmers will be able to have large cultivations, giving priority to indigenous groups and small farmers in an aim for social equity.
On 28th June 2021, the Supreme Court of Mexico decriminalized the recreational use of cannabis by modifying two articles in the General Health Law to allow adults to cultivate cannabis for personal use in their homes. On July 15th, these changes were published with instructions to COFEPRIS (Mexico’s Federal Commission For The Protection Against Sanitary Risks) to approve authorizations for any adult who applies. However, there are some restrictions – recreational cannabis can only be for personal use, it cannot be consumed in the presence of third parties and cannabis, or cannabis products cannot be commercialized. Moreover, even though the Supreme Court legalized adult-use cannabis, the federal and state laws did not change. There is still a lack of a formal framework and Congress has not made rules about personal use of cannabis.
The commercialization of recreational cannabis in Mexico will have a significant effect on recreational sales in the region accounting for over 80% of projected adult cannabis sales. A legal market could be valued at more than $3 billion a year. According to the Guardian, “more than 10 million people in Mexico are estimated to have used cannabis”. Economists have forecasted that, with a potential base of over 1.4 million regular domestic users, Mexico could receive over $1.2 billion in new, annual tax revenue.
Mexico Cannabis Market Infographics
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