Legalization

In 2015, a report from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), stated that drug use, when not injuring others, should not be illegal in the EU. While there are 39 million people in Canada and 340 million in the United States, the European Union is home to almost 450 million. The most populous EU Member State is Germany (83 million, 18% of the EU total), followed by France (68 million, 15%), Italy (59 million, 13%), Spain (47 million, 10%) and Poland (38 million, 8%). The population of Great Britain is estimated at approximately 68 million people. The current population of Switzerland is 9 million people and Norway has another 5 million.

Some form of medical cannabis (or cannabis-based medicine) is now legal in 22 countries in the region, with a further 11 countries decriminalising the recreational use of personal amounts of cannabis and 3 countries legalised cannabis for recreational use.

In 2018, six new countries have announced medical legalisation, the number of patients increased by 40% month on month and more than 500 million euro has been invested in the European cannabis industry. In 2018-2019, the European cannabis market experienced greater growth than in the previous six years, according to the “European Cannabis Report” released by Prohibition Partners.

In November 2020, United Nations voted to recognise the medical potential of cannabis by removing it from Category IV of the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs and European Court of Justice ruled that CBD is not a narcotic under EU law, allowing for the commencement of application for marketing approval for CBD products on the continent.

In 2020, there were 17 active clinical trials, investigating the efficacy of cannabis and cannabinoid medications against diseases, in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Though there has been progress regarding recreational cannabis, such as cannabis social clubs (Spain, Belgium, the UK, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Romania, and the Netherlands) and sporadic decriminalisation, recreational cannabis has not yet been widely legalised in Europe and so the market for legal cannabis products in most European countries continues to be entirely medical. This balance is expected to shift by 2025 as more countries open up to legalised adult-use cannabis.

In February 2024, Germany became the third country in Europe, after Malta and Luxembourg, to legalize cannabis for recreational use by removing it from the official list of prohibited substances.

Market Size and Forecast

Reports prepared by London-based advisory group Prohibition Partners value the European legal cannabis market at €354 million in 2022 and €516 million in 2023. Total cannabis sales are forecast to grow with a CAGR of 45% to reach €2.1 billion by 2027.

The market forecast expects to see a slow start over the review period with recreational cannabis only coming to the fore in 2023 following legalisation in the Netherlands and Switzerland whereas Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Germany and Malta are supposed to introduce legal access to adult-use cannabis, at least on a trial basis, by 2025.

BDSA’s global legal cannabis forecast shows almost $4 billion by 2025, while Brightfield Group forecasts over $3.1 billion with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 52%.

New Frontier Data estimates the total value of cannabis demand in Europe is $42.9 billion.

Source: cannabusinessplans.eu

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